Taliban, Iraqi Sunnis – Apples, Oranges

What I’m reading about President Barack Obama’s latest pronouncements on turning the tide in the war in Afghanistan makes me uneasy.

There is no doubt that U.S. and NATO fortunes have backslid in Afghanistan, through no fault of our troops on the ground – there just haven’t been enough to pursue any of a number of strategies effectively.  We also know that in many respects the “surge” in Iraq worked to some effect in that war.  The surge was not just about troops, it was also about effective counterinsurgency policy and tactics.  One of those tactics was to co-opt Sunni tribal elders and their followers who had fallen in line with al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Now, as if Afghanistan is just like Iraq, we’re going to surge there as well.  More troops makes sense if those troops are protecting civilians and not leaving them prey to the Taliban.  More troops make sense if we are capturing or killing Taliban.  Paying off Taliban in the way we worked with Sunni leaders in Iraq is a suckers bet, however.

Too many Americans view the Islamic world through a single lens ground from the images of 9/11 and the Bush war on terror.  In this view all muslims are sixth century throwbacks who routinely take to the streets and chant death to America.

The truth is that most muslims want the same things most of us want – peace, prosperity, liberty.  Another part of the truth is that there is a very vocal, in your face segment of Islam, who are grounded in a medieval view of the world.  They are inherently evil.  Their most apparent incarnation is in the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

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Transcript: Obama Interview with New York Times Aboard Air Force One – May Negotiate with Taliban

(Source: New York Times)

President Obama spoke in a 35-minute interview aboard Air Force One on Friday afternoon as he traveled from Columbus, Ohio to Andrews Air Force Base. This is an edited transcript, as recorded by The New York Times.

Q. You said it’s going to take a long time to get out of this economic crisis. Can you assure the American people that the economy will be growing by the summer, the fall or the end of the year?

A. I don’t think that anybody has that kind of crystal ball. We are going through a wrenching process of de-leveraging in the financial sectors – not just here in the United States, but all around the world – that have profound consequences for Main Street. What started off as problems with the banks, led to a contraction of lending, which led in turn to both declining demand on the part of consumers, but also declining demand on the part of business. So it is going to take some time to work itself through.

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AfPakanistan – What Has Barack Obama Inherited

U.S. Marine under fire in Afghanistan, Spring 2008, Reuters

U.S. Military Surge in Afghanistan Can It Work?

U.S. Ally Pakistan – Working Next Door at Cross Purpose

If you’re at all interested in the future of the “War on Terror” and the current version of the Great Game being played out Afghanistan and Pakistan you need to read two stories from the Sunday New York Times:

• Fearing another Quagmire in Afghanistan
• In Pakistan, radio amplifies terror

What a mess.

No question about it, we didn’t finish the job in Afghanistan.  We pulled personnel and resources from the fight and sent it all to Iraq.  Six or seven years later, the Taliban controls swaths of territory, they use the Afghan-Pak border like a revolving door and they still terrorize those who don’t bend to their Dark Ages world view.

I’ve read that President Barack Obama is sending anywhere from 7,000 to 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan in order to deal with a resurgent Taliban, drug lords and assorted other characters from Earth’s version of Tatooine’s Cantina.  He might listen to former Secy of State Colin Powell:

Think Iraq was hard? Afghanistan, former Secretary of State Colin Powell argues, will be “much, much harder.”

“Iraq had a middle class,” Mr. Powell pointed out on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” a couple of hours before Mr. Obama was sworn in last Tuesday. “It was a fairly advanced country before Saddam Hussein drove it in the ground.” Afghanistan, on the other hand, “is still basically a tribal society, a lot of corruption; drugs are going to destroy that country if something isn’t done about it.”

Remember the post-Soviet era in Afghanistan? Forget about all the great powers that have had their militaries ground down in the mountain redoubts of the country, just think back to when the Soviets left.

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What the Islamic Terrorists May Really Want: Strike the Match on Pakistan’s Tinderbox

One encouraging sign of potentially avoiding a violent dispute between Pakistan and India in the wake of the Mumbai terror attacks was the planned visit to India by the leader of Pakistan’s sometimes rogue intelligence agency.

Known as ISI which stands for Inter Services Intelligence, the agency is ostensibly an arm of the Pakistani Army.  ISI is chiefly known for being the main conduit between the United States and the Afghani mujahadeen groups who fought Soviet occupation.  When the Soviets left Afghanistan, ISI threw in its lot with the Taliban.  The Taliban in turn eventually welcomed Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda back into the country and the roots of the current worldwide war on terror took hold.

So, to have the chief of ISI interacting with the Indian government would be a good sign.  Only the ISI chief essentially told Pakistani President Asif Zardari, “No.”  He didn’t make the trip. Read more

Sunday p.m. – Woodward’s new book, Fannie, Freddie, Prez Campaign, Pakistan

Bob Woodward’s New Book – WaPo Series Kicks Off

• Doubt, Distrust, Delay – Washington Post
• Spying on Iraqi Leader – Worth the Risk? – Washington Post

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National & World News

• Palin’s politics and family mix - Washington Post
• U.S. unveils takeover of two mortgage giants – New York Times
• A tangled web with many masters – New York Times
• What the takeover means for your mortgage – Washington Post
• Bhutto’s widower elected Pakistani president – Washington Post
• Talibanistan – New York Times Magazine
• The vanishing Republican voter – New York Times Magazine
• Rival tickets are redrawing battlegrounds – New York Times
• Coming to grips with Russia’s new nerve – New York Times
• Hurricane Ike kills 59 on Hispaniola, headed for Cuba – Chicago Tribune

Sunday Night Last Look – More housing market trouble, Taliban, Malwebolence

From the New York Times

• Housing lenders fear bigger wave of loan defaults
• Ragtag Taliban show tenacity in Afghanistan
• The trolls among us