Prediction: Caroline will end up finishing up Teddy’s term

New York’s Kennedy sideshow is over – albeit in some amount of confusion.

Much has been said and continues to speculated on as to whether or not New York Gov. David Paterson was disgusted with Caroline Kennedy and her attempt to serve out Hillary Clinton’s U.S. Senate term; or, rather was he going to annoint her at a press conference later this week.  Follow the link above and you can read the latest from the Old Grey Lady.

There are more questions than answers.  Was she so stricken by her uncle Sen. Edward M. Kennedy’s seizure on Inauguration Day that she could just not carry on?  If so, glad she’s out, we need steel in the Senate right now.  Did she have a household worker problem?  Who really cares?  That’s so Clinton Era.  According to the latest numbers about 5% of the U.S. population is undocumented, illegal.  Tax problems?  Caroline, you could’ve been contrite a la Timothy Geithner.  After all, if a financial genius can get away with dodging taxes, surely you could’ve charmed your way out of it.

Here’s what I think.  Hillary just had enough.  After all, it was Teddy and Caroline that annointed Barack the next Jack.  Secretary of State or not, it was just too much for these Obamaniacs to occupy that Senate seat she had carpet bagged so hard for.  I think Hillary did her in.

Caroline seems to signal that Uncle Teddy’s health has something to do with her change in plans.  Here’s how I think that figures in.  Sen. Kennedy will hang as long as he can, but it’s not likely to be another three years.  He retires and voila!  Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachussetts appoints Caroline – and the legacy continues.

NY Proposed Budget Paints Even Grimmer Tale Than Ohio Scenario

Gov. David Paterson of New York proposed a state budget Monday which is an austerity program to say the least.  In order to close the state’s largest projected deficit in history, Paterson’s budget proposes $9 billion in cuts including:

• $600 million in direct aid to New York City
• $700 million in education funding
• Merging several smaller state agencies
• Closing 13 prison camps or detention centers

Paterson also proposed 137 new taxes or fees:

The tax proposals are likely to touch almost every New Yorker in some way. The most notable new tax is an 18 percent levy on sugary soft drinks. But many other existing taxes would increase. The tax on car rentals would rise to 6 percent from 5 percent. Taxes on beer and wine would more than double. Taxes on gasoline, cable and satellite TV service, cigars and flavored malt beverages would also go up. And the cost of owning and operating a car would rise significantly, with 16 fee increases. The governor also proposed allowing wine sales in grocery stores and drug stores, which is expected to raise $105 million in the next fiscal year, mostly through licensing fees.

While the plan did not include an income tax increase for the wealthy, an idea pushed by Assembly Democrats, the state expects to raise $120 million next year by limiting the amount that millionaires can deduct from their state taxes.

Check out this New York Times story for more.

Executive branches from Washington to Albany propose budgets all the time.  They are a starting point in a process that winds through Congress or a state legislature and comes out on the other side as some sort of compromise.  How much of Paterson’s “proposal” is real or a tactic aimed at the incoming Obama Administration (direct aid for states) or at New York voters (prepare them for the worst, deliver something better)?

Here in Ohio, Gov. Ted Strickland rolled out his own budgetary horror show late last week.  Meant to answer reporters’ questions about what a $7 billion budget shortfall would mean, a document from his press shop painted a grim picture of prisons closing, tuition rising at state universities and education cuts.

It’s very clear that the recession has put government services at every level in a bind.  A communications, political and strategic question is, when do you put out the red alert?  Paterson released his budget today a full month early.  Strickland’s missive to the media comes at least two months before legislators get down to the full-on politics of Ohio’s next biennial budget and weeks before Barack Obama will have any bearing on direct aid to states.

Let’s hope we’re not peaking the message machine too early and desensitizing the media when we’ll really need them to tell a story about more than scenarios.

Another Chapter About to be Written in the Kennedy Saga?

New York Senate Seat News

• Caroline Kennedy to seek NY Senate seat – New York Times
• Kennedy will approach Paterson on Senate seat - Washington Post
• Caroline Kennedy wants Senate seat: Official - Bloomberg