Lunch Break: Dow Erases Yesterday’s Gains on GM, China News

• GM auditors worry about company’s future – Washington Post
• Wen boosts spending without adding to stimulus – The Guardian (U.K.)

The Daily Graphic: Dow Returns to 2002 Low

Underlying chart from Google Finance.  Notations added with PowerPoint.

Brutal Week, Year for the Dow

• U.S. Stocks follow world markets down – Washington Post
• As stocks continue plunge, Dodd says it may be time for short-term nationalization – Bloomberg
• Economic concerns send global shares lower – New York Times
• B of A, Citi shares fall on nationalization talk – Reuters

Dow 7000?

Back on October 6, I predicted – well sort of predicted by writing a headline on some market news aggregation – Dow 8,000.  Based on the economic and financial industry news of that day just 2 1/2 months ago (seems longer) the Dow dropping to 8,000 and staying in that vicinity for some period of time seemed reasonable.

At the time we had been through Fannie and Freddie, Lehman was failing, more banks were failing and the federal government and media began explaining things like credit default swaps to America.  Things looked bad, but some were still touting the “fundamentals” of the U.S. economy and the publicly traded companies on our major stock exchanges shouldn’t pay too high a price (with dropping share values) for the excesses of the financial services industry.  Also at that time, I was reading Kevin Phillps’ book, Bad Money.  If you want a better understanding than the average bear – or bull – of the current U.S. financial system Bad Money is a must read.  At any rate, under the influence of that book, it was just obvious that as stocks dropped sharply that day there were probably many more shoes to drop, hence the market wasn’t at the bottom yet.

Now I’ll revise my estimate.  On top of the crisis in the financial system and all that it entails, from failing banks to a still too tight credit market there are many more economic indicators pointing to the final quarter of 2008 just being the beginning of a difficult economic downturn.  Here are a few things that immediately come to mind: Read more

Cat bounces Monday – Dies again today – What’s in store for tomorrow?

DOWn over 700

• Dow loses 8% over recession fears – CNBC
• U.S. stocks plunge most since 1987 – Bloomberg
• Dow declines 733; S&P 9% - Wall Street Journal
• Plunge in stocks Highlights ailing economy – New York Times
• Most of Monday’s gain is erased – New York Times
• Wall Street plummets – Reuters

One Year DJIA Chart

Bernanke, Other News & Analysis

• Economic activity weak across U.S.: Beige Book – Reuters
• Bernanke says U.S. economy faces big threat – Reuters
• Fed considers more cuts – Wall Street Journal
• Bernanke says bailout will need time to work – New York Times
• Video Link: Bernanke’s Address Courtesy of CNBC