Dow 7000?

Back on October 6, I predicted - well sort of predicted by writing a headline on some market news aggregation - Dow 8,000.  Based on the economic and financial industry news of that day just 2 1/2 months ago (seems longer) the Dow dropping to 8,000 and staying in that vicinity for some period of time seemed reasonable.

At the time we had been through Fannie and Freddie, Lehman was failing, more banks were failing and the federal government and media began explaining things like credit default swaps to America.  Things looked bad, but some were still touting the “fundamentals” of the U.S. economy and the publicly traded companies on our major stock exchanges shouldn’t pay too high a price (with dropping share values) for the excesses of the financial services industry.  Also at that time, I was reading Kevin Phillps’ book, Bad Money.  If you want a better understanding than the average bear - or bull - of the current U.S. financial system Bad Money is a must read.  At any rate, under the influence of that book, it was just obvious that as stocks dropped sharply that day there were probably many more shoes to drop, hence the market wasn’t at the bottom yet.

Now I’ll revise my estimate.  On top of the crisis in the financial system and all that it entails, from failing banks to a still too tight credit market there are many more economic indicators pointing to the final quarter of 2008 just being the beginning of a difficult economic downturn.  Here are a few things that immediately come to mind: Read more

Text: Henry Paulson Testimony before House Financial Services Committee | November 18, 2008

(Source: U.S. Treasury Department)

Click this link for PDF of Sec. Paulson’s Testimony

Text: Ben Bernanke Testimony to House Financial Services Committee | November 18, 2008

Click this link for PDF of Chairman Bernanke’s testimony.

Text: Summary of Auto Industry Rescue Bill – U.S. House Financial Services Committee

(Source: U.S. House Financial Services Committee)

Summary of Draft Auto Rescue Bill

Adds Title IV to the Emergency Economic Stability Act (EESA):

Emergency Direct Loan Program – Directs Treasury to make no greater than $25 billion total in loans to eligible automobile manufacturers no earlier than December 1, 2008. These funds will be drawn from the third tranche of the $700 billion provided under EESA without triggering the reporting and procedural requirements. Treasury will designate a portion of these funds as needed to meet applicants’ short-term liquidity requirements while they develop the long-term restructuring plan due on 3/31/09, and reserve the balance for long-term needs and implementation of restructuring plan.

Eligible Applicants

• Domestic automobile manufacturers producing in the U.S. continuously for 25 years or more.
• Treasury, in consultation with the Oversight Board described below, must make a determination that the failure of the applicant would have “systemic adverse effect on the overall United States economy.”
• Applicant must provide financial and other information as Treasury may require.
• Applicant must submit a short-term operating plan that describes planned use of the loan proceeds, including commitment of resources to develop long-term restructuring plan and reasonable prospects for repayment.•

Long-Term Restructuring Plan – Not later than 3/31/09, loan recipients must submit to Treasury acceptable restructuring plan for long-term viability and international competitiveness, including fuel efficiency standards and advanced technology vehicle manufacturing, rationalization of costs, and proposals for restructuring existing debt.

Oversight Board

• The Financial Stability Oversight Board (Oversight Board) established under EESA will provide oversight of the loan program, and will have four additional members for purposes of the loan program (Secretaries of Energy, Labor and Transportation and the EPA Administrator) in addition to the five existing members (Fed Chairman, Treasury Secretary, FHFA Director, SEC Chairman, and HUD Secretary).

Oversight of the Loan Program – Existing oversight provisions of EESA apply to the loan program, including GAO, Special IG, and Congressional Oversight Panel.

Allocation of Funds – Treasury, in consultation with the Oversight Board, will prioritize applications based on the magnitude of the impact of the applicant’s U.S. manufacturing operations on the overall U.S. economy.

Terms of Loans

• Term: 7 years (or longer as may be determined by the Oversight Board), subject to immediate acceleration if the recipient fails to submit an acceptable long-term restructuring plan.
• Interest Rate: 5% for first 5 years and 9% thereafter.
• Super Seniority: All other obligations and liabilities of a recipient will be subordinate to the loan.
• No prepayment penalty.

Warrants – Treasury must obtain warrants from each loan recipient (or economic equivalent in the case of a privately held firm) equal to 20% of the loan or such greater percentage as may be determined by Treasury in consultation with the Oversight Board.

Executive Compensation and Corporate Governance – All executive compensation restrictions from EESA apply to loan recipients for the duration of the loan plus the following additional restrictions:

• No bonuses to employees making more than $200,000 (which Treasury will adjust for inflation).
• No golden parachutes under any circumstances.
• No compensation plan that could encourage manipulation of reported earnings to enhance compensation.

Ability to Prohibit Transactions, Oversight of Financial Condition – For duration of the loan, Treasury in consultation with the Oversight Board will have the authority to review and prohibit any asset sale, investment, contract, or commitment proposed to be entered into by the recipient valued in excess of $25 million.•

Dividends – Recipients may not pay any dividends for duration of the loan.•

Full Information Access – Recipients are required to provide Treasury and Oversight Board access to all information that may be relevant to the loan to monitor the interests of the government under this title.

Acceleration of Repayment for Failure to Comply – Treasury may require, in consultation with the Oversight Board, accelerated repayment if loan recipient fails to submit an acceptable long-term restructuring plan or fails comply with any other applicable condition or requirement of the loan program or CAFE

Big Three Automakers, UAW Go Begging on Capitol Hill

Other Than Lehman, Who’s Not Too Big to Fail?

• Automakers beg for aid as their bailout bill stalls - Associated Press
• Big Three try to jumpstart U.S. bailout - Agence France Presse
• GM’s Wagoner: Bailout needed to save U.S. economy from ‘catastrophic collapse’ - Reuters
• Support unravels for Detroit’s share of $700 BN - Detroit Free Press
• Mulally defends Ford’s decisions - Detroit Free Press
• Automakers ask for federal help - Washington Post
• Automakers make their case to Congress - New York Times

Prediction: Schwarzenegger Runs for Senate as Democrat in 2012

I really found it hard to believe that the Governator came to Columbus, Ohio in the waning days of the presidential campaign to stump for John McCain.  After all, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-CA, is often at odds with his own party and their wedge issues platform.

Democrats will be in trouble again if more Republicans talk - and act - like Schwarzenegger.  During a week where the dominant political story seemed to be all about how Republicans will climb back to relevance, Schwarzenegger spoke some truth to his party’s powerbrokers on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopolous:

SCHWARZENEGGER: (…) Remember that so many times there’s dialogue about, you know, we have to go back to our core values.

What is that? What is core? How far does core go back in history in America, the word core? Does it go back 30 years? Does it go back 50 years? Because we know that Teddy Roosevelt talked about universal health care. So they’re off the core for a long time ago already. He has talked about protecting our environment. So they’ve been off for a long time on that.

I mean, let’s be honest. Ronald Reagan — let’s go to Eisenhower, for instance. Eisenhower has built the highway system in America and he’s poured billions of dollars into infrastructure. Where Republicans today say, well, that’s spending. We shouldn’t spend. That’s not spending. That’s investing in the future of America.

So there’s a lot of things that they have been off on, if they want to go and talk about the core values. But maybe their definition of core values is maybe different.

But I mean, so I think it’s all nonsense talk. I think if they just talk about one thing, what do we need now?

Now, America needs to be rebuilt, because we haven’t really rebuilt America for decades. So we need to rebuild America, fix the bridges, fix the highways, fix the buildings, tunnels and all of those kind of things we need to do. And then we have to go and create great relationships with our partners overseas, with the world, and to build those relationships again. And we have to take care of health care. We have to take care of our environment. And we have to build an energy future. Those are the things that people want right now.

Schwarzenegger also discussed his proposal for a 1 1/2 percent state sales tax in California to deal with the state’s projected $11 billion budget shortfall.  California, like Ohio, is dealing with the ill effects of the soon to be official U.S. recession – shortfalls in state revenue.  Rather than take the stance of the idealogue, Schwarzenegger is pragmatic about taxes:

STEPHANOPOULOS: You don’t want to do it.

SCHWARZENEGGER: I don’t want to do it. I hate taxes. I hate the word “taxes” and all of those things. But there’s certain times when you have to forget about the ideology, and, you know, all of this, and fix problems…

STEPHANOPOULOS: That is…

SCHWARZENEGGER: Because people want their fixed problems.

A look at just a few of the issues Schwarzenegger has taken the lead on in California over the past year shows a fairly progressive agenda: tearing down dams on the Klamath River, numerous alternative energy projects, school-based health centers, reform of the emergency medical care system and state infrastructure improvements.  Although far from being an endorsement, in the quote above, Schwarzenegger is the first Republican I’ve heard to evoke the memory of Teddy Roosevelt and the Rough Rider’s ruminations on universal healthcare for Americans.  Usually when contemporary Republicans speak of TR it’s bombastic and centered on their one-dimensional understanding of history and Roosevelt - “Bully” and “Gunboat Diplomacy” come to mind.  Schwarzenegger seems to understand that TR was a reformer and a progressive.

So, I am predicting today that the GOP has created a monster that will drive some of its stars to become Independents or Democrats.  Their party’s base has been given over to the social conservatives, culture warriors and theocrats.  Finally, most of the country seems to be rejecting this brand of conservatism and beginning to understand that every breath wasted on wedge issues while we’re mired in two wars and in a state of economic decline is foolishness.  The country which has set the standard and created the future is now getting left behind.

I’ll further refine the prediction by saying that in 2012 the Governator will be running for the U.S. Senate from California as an Independent or a Democrat. 

I think that Arnold’s water carrying for whichever Republican is running for president will be coming to an end.  He’s eventually got to realize that the dinosaur party needs him and his star power much more than he needs them.

Full Text: President George W. Bush, Speech on the Financial Markets and World Economy, Manhattan Institute, November 13

(Source: White House Press Office)

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Please be seated. Thank you. Larry, thank you for the introduction. Thank you for giving Laura and me a chance to come to this historic hall to talk about a big issue facing the world. And today I appreciate you giving me a chance to come and for me to outline the steps that America and our partners are taking and are going to take to overcome this financial crisis.

And I thank the Manhattan Institute for all you have done. I appreciate the fact that I am here in a fabulous city to give this speech. (Applause.) People say, are you confident about our future? And the answer is, absolutely. And it’s easy to be confident when you’re a city like New York City. After all, there’s an unbelievable spirit in this city. This is a city whose skyline has offered immigrants their first glimpse of freedom. This is a city where people rallied when that freedom came under attack. This is a city whose capital markets have attracted investments from around the world and financed the dreams of entrepreneurs all across America. This is a city that has been and will always be the financial capital of the world. (Applause.) Read more

Text: George Soros Testimony to U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, November 13, 2008

(Source: U.S. Congress, House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform)

Click Here for PDF of Soros’ Prepared Testimony

Treasury Bailing Out AIG Again

Will There Be Spa Trips and English Hunting Excursions This Time?

I sure hope the executive pigs at AIG get it this time.  After all, the last time our tax money was used to prop up their failing business, they spent hundreds of thousands on a West Coast spa and an English hunting trip.

This morning, the U.S. Dept. of Treasury announced the federal government was upping the AIG bailout ante by $40 billion — bringing the taxpayer funded tab to keep the company solvent to $150 billion.  Additionally, AIG is getting a better deal today on the interest it is paying the federal government for loans the public is backing.  As this once shining capitalist jewel becomes nationalized, that means the public accounts will reap less from the bad business decisions sown by AIG executives.

One must also remember that just weeks ago, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo told the insurance company that he was able and willing to ‘help’ them do away with golden parachutes, executive pleasure outings and huge bonuses.  Then, U.S. Rep. Henry Waxman found that former AIG exec Joseph Cassano, who ran the company’s financial products section into the ground and left AIG in February was being paid $1 million a month - for nothing - even as the company slurped up taxpayers’ money. Read more

Sunday Papers – November 9, 2008

New York Times Magazine

• After the Imperial Presidency– Jonathan Mahler
• Payday Lenders, Check Cashers – Redeemed?– Douglas McGray
• Deprogramming Jihadists– Katherine Zoepf

New York Times

• Obama team weighs what to take on first
• Harsh words about Obama? Never mind
• Citing workload public lawyers refuse new cases
• How Merrill fell
• Pelosi, Reid want aid for U.S. automakers
• Op-Ed, Frank Rich: It still felt good morning after
• Op-Ed, Al Gore: The climate for change
• Op-Ed, Thomas Friedman: Show me the money
• Op-Ed, Nicholas Kristof: Obama and the War on Brains
• Rice visits West Bank
• U.S. electricity project in Afghanistan
• Back home, Palin finds landscape changed
• After push for Obama, Unions seek new rules

Washington Post

• Preparing for the Obama era
• Reid, Pelosi urge Treasury to extend aid to automakers
• Self-sufficiency evades Iraqi security forces
• Obama positioned to reverse Bush actions
• Medvedev calls Obama; Kremlin describes call
• Congressional Democrats say economy first priority
• Op-Ed, Rich Lowry: The right needs to get centered
• Op-Ed, Joseph Stiglitz: More pain to come even if he’s perfect
• Op-Ed, Ron Suskind: U.S. has power – it could use authority
• Op-Ed, David Broder: Governors know best
• Op-Ed, George Will: Democratic ironies and Republican Afflictions

Los Angeles Times

• Democrats set sights on Texas
• Public works on the table once again
• Obama relies on a close-knit inner circle
• Op-Ed, Norman Ornstein: The GOP’s deep hole
• Op-Ed, James Rainey: Right-wing media feeds its post-election anger
• Political blogger be nimble, be quick
• Election leaves gay couple feeling isolated

Bank Failures Surging in 2008

The last couple of times I’ve noticed that banks are failing it’s always on Saturday, as the FDIC quietly swoops in and takes over on a Friday afternoon.  It seems like it’s happening more and more often so I took a look at the FDIC’s website.  There is a spike this year, we’ve had 19 FDIC insured banks fail this year.  The record I found only went back to 2000, there is a chart below.  41% of the bank failures in the last eight years have occurred this year.  33% of U.S. bank failures since 2000 have happened since July of this year. 

Security Pacific Bank of Los Angeles and Franklin Bank of Houston, Texas became casulties on Friday.  I’m looking at these numbers, the jobless rate, the housing bubble, Ford’s and GM’s woes - the list goes on - and I’m thinking that all Barney Frank, George Bush and Henry Paulson have done is throw $700 billion at Wall Street. 

Video: Paul Krugman on Economy and Obama’s Economic Plan | November 7

Video: President-Elect Barack Obama First Press Conference, Chicago, November 7

Transcript: President-Elect Barack Obama First Press Conference, Chicago, IL

(Source: CNN)
CHICAGO, Illinois (CNN) — Sen. Barack Obama spoke at a his first news conference as president-elect Friday afternoon. The following is a transcript of the conference:

Obama: Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you very much.

This morning, we woke up to more sobering news about the state of our economy. The 240,000 jobs lost in October marks the 10th consecutive month that our economy has shed jobs. In total, we’ve lost nearly 1.2 million jobs this year, and more than 10 million Americans are now unemployed. Read more

Why I’m Voting for Obama – Reason 1 of 3 – The Economy (and Energy)

Since the first presidential election in which I could vote, I’ve been hearing politicians promise tax relief for the middle class. They called it “tax relief” because very often there was nothing in it for the middle. President Clinton, to his credit, took care of the lower end of the scale with the Earned Income Tax Credit. Both Bushes gave us more of the Laffer Curve and Trickle Down Economics. The biggest breaks under every president I’ve had the privilege to vote for or against has benefited large corporations, usually of the multi-national type. Read more

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